Considering that I previously said that I did not believe polls to be accurate, I must confess that I place a little more confidence in polls than I do in demographic-based hocus pocus that I believe is being utilized to accomplish a certain outcome. Without delving into my real political beliefs, I would be negligent if I did not acknowledge that 538 has shifted much to the left from where they used to be. To be sure, 538 readers are likely to be well-educated (which, according to polls, means they are more likely to be left-leaning—-sorry), but everything they have published lately seems to be from the viewpoint of “How does this work for the Democrats?” or “What do the Democrats need to do?”

Simply said, I believe that their coverage of 2016 at the very least attempted (with a few undertones here and there) to be more balanced.

In any case, the most probable response comes from something that no one is really doing—-namely, asking voters who are genuinely indecisive a basic, but precise question such as, “Of the two, is there one you would definitely NOT vote for?” At that point, it becomes a fairly safe prediction that a significant number of these individuals will vote for the other candidate.

The way they include national surveys and then make those demographic-based changes and modifications based on a state’s voting history is another thing that I don’t care for. Those things aren’t important. There are various candidates in each election. There was a time when West Virginia (which will most likely have the second-highest Trump percentage) was seen as a safe Democratic state. That has changed. If anything, the fact that Reagan was defeated in his inaugural attempt in West Virginia should give you pause.

I really don’t know. I’ll tell you what we’re going to do this year: I’m going to do a little experiment in which I take the 538 predictions from the day before the election, compare them to the polls, and then compare them to what really occurs. If it turns out that their forecasts were far off when compared to the polling results, I’ll be happy to publish a follow-up apologetic essay and accept my defeat with a kind heart.

I just believe that what they are doing amounts to (over)educated guesswork, but I suppose that we shall find out soon enough.


To begin, I would want to talk about the costs associated with Predictit.org before we go on to any other topics.

PredictIt’s cost structure is straightforward and consists of two parts:

If the binary option ends up being a winner, they will deduct 10% of your earnings from your total profits. The binary option will lose ten percent of its value if it is sold at a greater price than it was originally purchased for.

Any funds that are removed will be subject to a 5 percent fee charged by the site.

As a result, any advise given—-which is likewise strictly for amusement reasons only and is entirely based on my own personal opinion—-will be more beneficial to those already registered on the site. Even if you invested $100 and did nothing with it, you would only get $95 of your money back if you were to withdraw your cash thirty days later. In fact, every conceivable wager is inherently better for people who have money on the site.

As you may remember, I was undecided about who would win the Presidential election in 2016, but I discovered that Donald Trump represented great value. This year, they’ve done binary choices a little differently, so instead of it being Trump or Biden, it’s Trump Yes/No and Biden Yes/No individually. PredictIt has also made the decision to provide certain standard binary options as well as specialized binary options on particular regions and states.

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